The Wellbeing Budget

Child Poverty Report

Image credit

Are we on track to reach our targets?

While it’s too early to say with certainty if all of the changes we’ve made will enable us to reach our targets, we’ve been able to model the estimated impact of some of our flagship initiatives, namely the Families Package and Budget 2019 income support changes.

Modelling by the Treasury indicates that by 2020/21 the combined impact of the Families Package and Budget 2019 income support changes would mean:

Table 6 – Impact of the Families Package and Budget 2019 income support changes on child poverty

    By 2020/21
  From a 2017/18 baseline of Reduce the 2017/18 baseline Projected proportion of children remaining in poverty Projected number of children remaining in poverty

On the BHC50 measure

16.5% of children (around 180,000 children)

By between 24% and 37% (between 41,000 and 66,000 children)

Between 10.1% and 12.7% of children

Between 115,000 and 144,000 children

On the AHC50 measure

22.8% of children (around 250,000 children)

By between 22% and 30% (between 50,000 and 74,000 children)

Between 15.2% and 18.6% of children

Between 172,000 and 212,000 children

The Treasury's modelled estimates of changes relative to the baseline data provided by Stats NZ are set out in the graphs below.4 The forecast trend, taking into account the impact of the Families Package and part of Budget 2019 income support changes, is shown in red in Figures 1 and 2. It is not possible with available data for the Treasury to model the impact of the removal of the section 192 sanction or the impact of any policy changes on the material hardship measure.

Figure 16 – Children in households below the moving-line BHC poverty threshold

Figure 16 – Children in households below the moving-line BHC poverty threshold
Source: Stats, Treasury

Figure 17 – Children in households below the fixed-line AHC poverty threshold

Figure 17 – Children in households below the fixed-line AHC poverty threshold
Source: Stats, Treasury

Figure 18 – Children in households experiencing material hardship

Figure 18 – Children in households experiencing material hardship

Modelling projected impact

Current reporting timeframes mean that poverty rates for the 2018/19 year will not be available until early 2020. Instead, the Treasury estimated the expected rates based on forecasts of the economy and housing costs, and taking into account the key income support packages announced in Budgets 2018 and 2019. Modelling is only available for the income measures and is not available on the material hardship measure.*

* This modelling is a projection only and the impacts of these initiatives are best expressed as a range, based on a 95 per cent margin of error. This range accounts for survey variability but not deviation from current economic forecasts.

Notes

  1. 4. For all charts above, access to the data used in this study was provided by Stats NZ under conditions designed to give effect to the security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. The results presented labelled as Treasury Projections are the work of the Treasury, not Stats NZ.

Your browser is out-of-date!

Update your browser to view this website correctly. Update my browser now

×

Back to Top