Budget 2019

The Treasury's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Fiscal indicators and the financial forecasts

Table 16 - Fiscal indicators and the financial forecasts

Year ending 30 June
$million
2018
Actual
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
2021
Forecast
2022
Forecast
2023
Forecast
Fiscal Narrative            
Core Crown taxation revenue... 80,224 84,650 89,245 95,089 100,172 105,595
...combined with other core Crown revenue... 6,554 6,949 7,182 7,837 7,951 8,232
...fund core Crown expenses... (80,576) (87,300) (93,262) (98,891) (101,686) (105,733)
...and with SOE and CE results... (668) (834) (1,852) (1,904) (1,754) (1,948)
...result in an operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL)... 5,534 3,465 1,313 2,131 4,683 6,146
...with gains/losses leading to an operating surplus/(deficit)... 8,396 (284) 4,680 5,916 8,972 10,890
...with income in SOEs, CEs and the NZS Fund retained... 139 727 1,920 1,997 1,857 2,063
...and some items do not impact on cash... (6,789) 44 (2,990) (5,633) (7,628) (9,851)
...this leads to an operating residual cash surplus/(deficit)... 7,280 3,952 4,923 4,411 7,884 9,248
...used to make contributions to the NZS Fund... (500) (1,000) (1,460) (2,120) (2,420) (2,553)
...and to use for capital expenditure... (2,515) (3,362) (3,703) (3,373) (2,592) (2,010)
...and to make advances (eg, to students)... (2,919) (3,167) (4,435) (2,751) (2,230) (1,999)
...adjusting for forecast adjustments (top down/new spending)... - 792 484 (419) (1,225) (1,521)
...results in a residual cash surplus/(deficit)... 1,346 (2,785) (4,191) (4,252) (583) 1,165
...when combined with opening net core Crown debt... 59,480 57,495 60,299 64,695 69,226 69,861
...and other fair value movements in financial assets and financial liabilities... (639) 19 205 279 52 (241)
...results in a closing net core Crown debt... 57,495 60,299 64,695 69,226 69,861 68,455
...which as a % of GDP is 19.9% 20.1% 20.4% 20.7% 19.9% 18.7%

Source: The Treasury

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