Budget 2019

The Treasury's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Forecast analysis of core Crown expenses

Below is an analysis of core Crown expenses by functional classification. Core Crown expenses include expenses incurred by Ministers, Departments, Offices of Parliament, the NZS Fund and the Reserve Bank, but not Crown entities and SOEs.

Table 18 - Forecast analysis of core Crown expenses by functional classification

Year ending 30 June
$million
2018
Actual
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
2021
Forecast
2022
Forecast
2023
Forecast
By functional classification            
Social security and welfare 25,999 28,961 30,915 32,360 33,726 34,959
Health 17,159 18,277 19,198 19,119 19,254 19,283
Education 13,629 14,312 14,919 15,318 15,447 15,640
Core government services 4,670 5,326 5,608 5,161 4,917 4,829
Law and order 4,184 4,757 4,890 4,885 4,927 5,050
Transport and communications 2,559 3,212 3,103 3,950 3,366 3,443
Economic and industrial services 2,732 3,028 4,328 3,576 2,901 3,068
Defence 2,251 2,418 2,541 2,573 2,539 2,498
Heritage, culture and recreation 850 913 996 929 920 902
Primary services 807 1,088 1,036 862 680 719
Housing and community development 552 711 897 1,396 1,464 1,335
Environmental protection 1,238 1,125 1,281 1,255 1,478 1,448
GSF pension expenses 150 159 164 146 150 167
Other 299 114 341 412 412 412
Finance costs 3,497 3,434 3,179 3,174 3,041 3,162
Forecast new operating spending - 265 1,266 4,275 6,964 9,318
Top-down expense adjustment - (800) (1,400) (500) (500) (500)
Total core Crown expenses excluding losses 80,576 87,300 93,262 98,891 101,686 105,733

Source: The Treasury

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