Budget 2019

The Treasury's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Fiscal indicators

Time series of fiscal and economic indicators

Table 21 - Fiscal indicators

June Years 2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
2021
Forecast
2022
Forecast
2023
Forecast
$millions                              
Revenue and expenses                              
Core Crown tax revenue 54,681 50,744 51,557 55,081 58,651 61,563 66,636 70,445 75,644 80,224 84,650 89,245 95,089 100,172 105,595
Core Crown revenue 59,191 55,757 57,199 60,428 63,805 67,093 72,213 76,121 81,782 86,778 91,599 96,427 102,926 108,123 113,827
Core Crown expenses 63,711 63,554 70,099 68,939 69,962 71,174 72,363 73,929 76,339 80,576 87,300 93,262 98,891 101,686 105,733
Operating balances                              
Total Crown OBEGAL (3,893) (6,315) (18,396) (9,240) (4,414) (2,802) 414 1,831 4,069 5,534 3,465 1,313 2,131 4,683 6,146
Total Crown operating balance (10,505) (4,509) (13,360) (14,897) 6,925 2,939 5,771 (5,369) 12,317 8,396 (284) 4,680 5,916 8,972 10,890
Cash                              
Core Crown residual cash (8,639) (9,000) (13,343) (10,644) (5,742) (4,109) (1,827) (1,322) 2,574 1,346 (2,785) (4,191) (4,252) (583) 1,165
Debt                              
Gross debt 43,356 53,591 72,420 79,635 77,984 81,956 86,125 86,928 87,141 88,053 83,287 86,845 88,445 96,775 92,900
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 50,973 58,891 77,290 84,168 84,286 88,468 93,156 93,283 92,620 95,437 89,046 92,604 94,204 102,534 98,659
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund) 5,633 12,549 23,969 33,475 34,428 34,174 30,862 32,102 23,619 19,460 18,356 18,684 17,355 11,444 3,087
Net core Crown debt 17,119 26,738 40,128 50,671 55,835 59,931 60,631 61,880 59,480 57,495 60,299 64,695 69,226 69,861 68,455
Total borrowings 61,953 69,733 90,245 100,534 100,087 103,419 112,580 113,956 111,806 115,652 112,057 118,125 121,215 131,309 130,582
Net worth                              
Total Crown net worth 99,515 94,988 80,887 59,780 70,011 80,697 98,236 95,521 116,472 135,637 136,166 140,748 146,681 155,703 166,605
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 99,068 94,586 80,579 59,348 68,071 75,486 86,454 89,366 110,532 129,644 129,999 134,730 140,747 149,833 160,825
Nominal expenditure GDP (revised actuals) 189,507 196,728 205,801 215,122 218,759 236,650 244,822 257,204 273,340 288,812 299,713 316,957 334,009 350,210 366,568
% GDP                              
Revenue and expenses                              
Core Crown tax revenue 28.9 25.8 25.1 25.6 26.8 26.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8
Core Crown revenue 31.2 28.3 27.8 28.1 29.2 28.4 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.6 30.4 30.8 30.9 31.1
Core Crown expenses 33.6 32.3 34.1 32.0 32.0 30.1 29.6 28.7 27.9 27.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.0 28.8
Operating balances                              
Total Crown OBEGAL (2.1) (3.2) (8.9) (4.3) (2.0) (1.2) 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.7
Total Crown operating balance (5.5) (2.3) (6.5) (6.9) 3.2 1.2 2.4 (2.1) 4.5 2.9 (0.1) 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.0
Cash                              
Core Crown residual cash (4.6) (4.6) (6.5) (4.9) (2.6) (1.7) (0.7) (0.5) 0.9 0.5 (0.9) (1.3) (1.3) (0.2) 0.3
Debt                              
Gross debt 22.9 27.2 35.2 37.0 35.6 34.6 35.2 33.8 31.9 30.5 27.8 27.4 26.5 27.6 25.3
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 26.9 29.9 37.6 39.1 38.5 37.4 38.1 36.3 33.9 33.0 29.7 29.2 28.2 29.3 26.9
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund) 3.0 6.4 11.6 15.6 15.7 14.4 12.6 12.5 8.6 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.2 3.3 0.8
Net core Crown debt 9.0 13.6 19.5 23.6 25.5 25.3 24.8 24.1 21.8 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.7 19.9 18.7
Total borrowings 32.7 35.4 43.9 46.7 45.8 43.7 46.0 44.3 40.9 40.0 37.4 37.3 36.3 37.5 35.6
Net worth                              
Total Crown net worth 52.5 48.3 39.3 27.8 32.0 34.1 40.1 37.1 42.6 47.0 45.4 44.4 43.9 44.5 45.4
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 52.3 48.1 39.2 27.6 31.1 31.9 35.3 34.7 40.4 44.9 43.4 42.5 42.1 42.8 43.9

Sources: The Treasury, Stats NZ

Your browser is out-of-date!

Update your browser to view this website correctly. Update my browser now

×

Back to Top