Budget 2019

The Treasury's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Economic indicators

Table 22 - Economic indicators

June Years
Annual average % change
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
2021
Forecast
2022
Forecast
2023
Forecast
Private consumption -1.0 2.3 2.0 3.5 2.4 3.4 3.2 4.3 5.6 3.6 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7
Public consumption 3.3 -0.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 3.0 3.3 1.5 2.6 3.0 1.9 4.2 1.8 0.9 1.0
Total consumption 0.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 1.8 3.3 3.2 3.7 4.9 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.3
Residential investment -22.0 -2.5 -3.1 10.2 18.2 13.1 6.3 9.9 4.2 2.6 3.4 5.2 5.4 3.4 2.0
Business investment -8.9 -8.0 8.2 6.0 0.8 9.3 6.9 2.4 2.1 6.8 0.7 3.8 3.6 2.4 2.1
Total investment -12.1 -6.8 5.6 6.8 4.6 10.2 6.7 4.3 2.6 5.6 1.4 4.2 4.1 2.7 2.1
Stock change (contribution to growth) -1.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Gross national expenditure -4.2 0.7 2.7 4.0 2.2 4.7 3.8 3.3 4.7 4.1 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.4 2.3
Exports -2.9 4.8 2.2 2.1 3.0 0.3 6.2 5.4 0.3 3.6 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5
Imports -12.0 -1.0 11.4 4.4 2.6 9.0 6.6 1.1 6.1 7.9 2.1 3.9 3.4 2.3 2.2
Expenditure on GDP -1.4 2.7 0.2 3.3 2.3 2.3 3.8 4.4 3.1 2.9 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.4
GDP (production measure) -1.6 1.0 1.1 2.8 2.2 2.7 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.4
   - annual % change -2.1 2.8 0.9 2.6 2.4 2.9 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.2 2.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.4
Real GDP per capita -2.5 -0.2 0.1 2.1 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 0.3 3.8 4.6 4.5 1.7 8.2 3.5 5.1 6.3 5.7 3.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.7
GDP deflator 1.6 1.1 4.4 1.2 -0.6 5.8 -0.3 0.6 3.1 2.7 1.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Output gap (% deviation, June year average) -0.6 -1.2 -1.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
Employment -0.2 -1.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.2 3.2 2.3 5.2 3.7 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3
Unemployment (% June quarter s.a.) 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 5.9 5.2 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change)  4.7 1.1 3.0 2.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.6 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6
CPI inflation (ann % change) 1.9 1.7 5.3 1.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis) -4.3 -3.0 9.7 -1.7 -3.8 16.4 -4.7 -2.7 5.0 4.7 -1.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
House prices (ann % change) -3.2 3.4 -0.2 4.0 8.9 6.3 11.8 15.0 6.5 3.6 2.9 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.8
Current account balance - $billion -9.4 -3.5 -6.0 -7.7 -7.9 -5.9 -8.4 -5.8 -7.4 -9.8 -10.1 -10.8 -11.4 -11.7 -12.2
Current account balance - % of GDP -4.9 -1.8 -2.9 -3.6 -3.6 -2.5 -3.4 -2.2 -2.7 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3
TWI (June quarter) 62.3 68.6 70.8 72.4 76.3 81.5 76.2 73.6 76.5 73.8 73.7 73.7 73.8 74.0 74.1
90-day bank bill rate (June quarter) 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.4 3.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6
10-year bond rate (June quarter) 5.6 5.7 5.3 3.7 3.5 4.4 3.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9

Data for 2019 and subsequently are forecasts. Data for 2018 and prior years are those that were available when the forecasts were finalised.

Sources: The Treasury, Stats NZ

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