Budget 2019

The Treasury's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

The Treasury's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

The tables below are a collection of key tables from the Treasury's economic and fiscal forecasts. The Treasury's Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2019 can be found on the Treasury's website at https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/budget-economic-and-fiscal-update-2019.

Table 14 - Summary of economic forecasts

Year ending 30 June
Annual average % change
2018
Actual
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
2021
Forecast
2022
Forecast
2023
Forecast
Private consumption 3.6 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7
Public consumption 3.0 1.9 4.2 1.8 0.9 1.0
Total consumption 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.3
Residential investment 2.6 3.4 5.2 5.4 3.4 2.0
Business investment1 6.8 0.7 3.8 3.6 2.4 2.1
Total investment 5.6 1.4 4.2 4.1 2.7 2.1
Stock change2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Gross national expenditure 4.1 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.4 2.3
Exports 3.6 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5
Imports 7.9 2.1 3.9 3.4 2.3 2.2
GDP (expenditure measure) 2.9 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.4
GDP (production measure) 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.4
Real GDP per capita 1.1 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2
Nominal GDP (expenditure measure) 5.7 3.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.7
GDP deflator 2.7 1.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Potential GDP 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6
Output gap (% of potential, June quarter)3 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1
Employment 3.7 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3
Unemployment rate4 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3
Participation rate5 71.0 70.9 71.2 71.3 71.4 71.4
Hourly wages (annual % change)6 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6
CPI inflation (annual % change) 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
Terms of trade (goods)7 4.7 -1.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
House prices (annual % change)8 3.6 2.9 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.8
Current account balance (annual)            
     $billions -9.8 -10.1 -10.8 -11.4 -11.7 -12.2
     % of GDP -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3
Net International Investment Position (% of GDP) -53.5 -57.5 -57.8 -58.3 -58.9 -59.6
Household saving ratio (% of HHDI)9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9
Exchange rate (TWI)10 73.8 73.7 73.7 73.8 74.0 74.1
90-day bank bill rate11 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6
10-year bond rate11 2.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9

Footnotes

  1. 1. Business investment is the total of all investment types excluding residential building.
  2. 2. Contribution to GDP growth.
  3. 3. Percentage difference between actual real GDP and potential real GDP.
  4. 4. Percent of the labour force, June quarter, seasonally adjusted.
  5. 5. Percent of working-age population, June quarter, seasonally adjusted.
  6. 6. Quarterly Employment Survey, average ordinary-time hourly earnings.
  7. 7. System of National Accounts.
  8. 8. Quotable Value Quarterly House Price Index.
  9. 9. Percent of household disposable income (HHDI), March years.
  10. 10. Trade Weighted Index (TWI), average for the June quarter.
  11. 11. Average for the June quarter.

Sources: Stats NZ, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, QV Limited, the Treasury

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