Child poverty forecasts
The Treasury forecasts future levels of child poverty on the AHC50 and BHC50 measures, based on economic forecasts and changes in key income-support measures. This modelling involves considerable uncertainty, so future child poverty rates are expressed as a range. The Treasury’s model is unable to forecast material hardship.
The latest forecasts and historical figures are shown below. Tax and transfer measures in Budget 2025 are expected to have a very slightly positive impact on child poverty rates in 2026/27 and 2027/28, on both the AHC50 and BHC50 measures, and a very slightly negative impact in 2028/29 on the AHC50 measure only, although none of these differences are statistically significant.
Material hardship
How many households do not have access to the essential items for living?
The Treasury's model cannot estimate material hardship.
After-housing-costs, fixed-line measure (AHC50[3])
How many households have very low incomes relative to previous years, after considering housing costs and increases to the cost of living?
| 2029 | |
|---|---|
| Projection | 18.4 per cent |
| Margin of error | ±1.7 (percentage points) |
Before-housing-costs, moving-line measure (BHC50[3])
How many households have much lower incomes than middle-income households?
| 2029 | |
| Projection | 11.9 per cent |
|---|---|
| Margin of error | ±1.4 (percentage points) |
Notes
- [3]There is a discontinuity between Treasury modelling and Stats NZ’s most recently reported child poverty statistics for 2024, because the 2024 statistics need to be revised next year to include updated Working for Families data, in line with standard practice.