Annex 1 – Fiscal forecasts from BEFU 2025
| Year ending 30 June | 2024 Actual |
2025 Forecast |
2026 Forecast |
2027 Forecast |
2028 Forecast |
2029 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $billions | ||||||
| Core Crown tax revenue | 120.6 | 120.9 | 125.0 | 133.0 | 140.5 | 148.2 |
| Core Crown revenue | 133.2 | 134.2 | 139.7 | 146.4 | 154.4 | 162.5 |
| Total Crown revenue | 167.3 | 169.7 | 175.9 | 184.0 | 193.8 | 203.0 |
| Core Crown expenses | 139.0 | 142.2 | 150.3 | 153.1 | 156.8 | 162.0 |
| Total Crown expenses | 180.1 | 184.1 | 191.2 | 195.3 | 199.9 | 205.6 |
| OBEGALx | -8.8 | -10.2 | -12.1 | -8.1 | -3.1 | 0.2 |
| Operating balance | -8.4 | -5.5 | -9.9 | -5.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 |
| Net core Crown debt | 175.5 | 185.6 | 200.2 | 218.4 | 230.2 | 238.5 |
| Total borrowings | 250.9 | 277.6 | 305.1 | 325.9 | 342.6 | 354.2 |
| Gross debt | 176.0 | 210.0 | 238.8 | 262.5 | 274.4 | 283.0 |
| Net worth | 191.0 | 183.1 | 173.2 | 167.8 | 167.8 | 171.9 |
| Residual cash | -19.3 | -10.0 | -14.5 | -18.2 | -11.4 | -8.1 |
| % of GDP | ||||||
| Core Crown tax revenue | 28.7 | 27.8 | 27.4 | 27.8 | 28.0 | 28.3 |
| Core Crown revenue | 31.7 | 30.8 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 30.8 | 31.0 |
| Total Crown revenue | 39.8 | 39.0 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.7 | 38.7 |
| Core Crown expenses | 33.0 | 32.7 | 32.9 | 32.1 | 31.3 | 30.9 |
| Total Crown expenses | 42.8 | 42.3 | 41.9 | 40.9 | 39.9 | 39.2 |
| OBEGALx | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -1.7 | -0.6 | 0.0 |
| Operating balance | -2.0 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Net core Crown debt | 41.7 | 42.7 | 43.9 | 45.7 | 46.0 | 45.5 |
| Total borrowings | 59.7 | 63.8 | 66.8 | 68.2 | 68.4 | 67.6 |
| Gross debt | 41.8 | 48.3 | 52.3 | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.0 |
| Net worth | 45.4 | 42.1 | 37.9 | 35.1 | 33.5 | 32.8 |
| Residual cash | -4.6 | -2.3 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -2.3 | -1.6 |
Source: The Treasury