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{"sheet":"Index","index":0,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[10,0,10,3],[11,0,11,3]]}
["Data and Charts - Budget Policy Statement 2026"]
[]
["Published by the New Zealand Treasury at: "]
["https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/budget-policy-statement/budget-policy-statement-2026"]
[]
["This spreadsheet contains the tables, charts and the data used to generate the charts that appear in the Budget Policy Statement 2026."]
[]
["Crown copyright ©"]
[]
[]
["This copyright work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. In essence, you are free to copy, distribute and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to the Crown and abide by the other licence terms."]
["To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Please note that no departmental or governmental emblem, logo or Coat of Arms may be used in any way which infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981 or would infringe such provision if the relevant use occurred within New Zealand. Attribution to the Crown should be in written form and not by reproduction of any such emblem, logo or Coat of Arms."]
[]
["#","Title","Source(s)"]
["Figures"]
[1,"Core Crown revenue and expenses","The Treasury"]
[2,"OBEGALx","The Treasury"]
[3,"Net core Crown debt","The Treasury"]
[4,"Real Budget operating allowances","Stats NZ, the Treasury"]
["A.1","Real GDP forecasts since PREFU 2023","Stats NZ, the Treasury"]
["A.2","Core Crown tax-to-GDP ratio forecasts since PREFU 2023","Stats NZ, the Treasury"]
[]
["Tables"]
[1,"Increase in core Crown expenses from 2018/19 to 2024/25 by functional classification","The Treasury"]
[2,"Key fiscal indicators from the HYEFU","The Treasury"]
[3,"Changes in OBEGALx forecasts between the BEFU and the HYEFU 2025","The Treasury"]
["A.1","Changes in OBEGALx forecasts between the PREFU 2023 and the HYEFU 2025","The Treasury"]

{"sheet":"Data 1 - CCR and CCE","index":1,"n_rows":25,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":25,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[3,2,3,3]]}
[null,"Figure 1: Core Crown revenue and expenses"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,null,"% of GDP"]
[null,"Year ending 30 June","Core Crown revenue","Core Crown expenses"]
[null,2006,33.800000000000004,29.9]
[null,2007,33.1,30.7]
[null,2008,32.6,30.099999999999998]
[null,2009,31.3,33.6]
[null,2010,28.299999999999997,32.300000000000004]
[null,2011,27.800000000000004,34.1]
[null,2012,28.1,32.1]
[null,2013,29.2,32]
[null,2014,28.299999999999997,30]
[null,2015,29.4,29.4]
[null,2016,29.4,28.599999999999998]
[null,2017,29.7,27.700000000000003]
[null,2018,29.4,27.3]
[null,2019,30.099999999999998,28.000000000000004]
[null,2020,28.9,34.300000000000004]
[null,2021,30.599999999999998,31.4]
[null,2022,32.1,34.4]
[null,2023,30.7,31.8]
[null,2024,31.7,33.1]
[null,2025,30.8,32.5]

{"sheet":"Data 2 - OBEGALx","index":3,"n_rows":21,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":21,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Figure 2: OBEGALx"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[null,null,"% of GDP"]
[null,"Year ending 30 June","OBEGALx"]
[null,2009,-2.0012955755568078]
[null,2010,-3.8843904861315197]
[null,2011,-9.6998306786921997]
[null,2012,-5.5224844674315614]
[null,2013,-2.6717400528325648]
[null,2014,-1.6]
[null,2015,0.1]
[null,2016,0.8]
[null,2017,1.7000000000000002]
[null,2018,2]
[null,2019,2.7]
[null,2020,-6.6000000000000005]
[null,2021,-0.70000000000000007]
[null,2022,-2.4]
[null,2023,-1.7999999999999998]
[null,2024,-2.1]
[null,2025,-2.1]

{"sheet":"Data 3 - Net core Crown debt","index":5,"n_rows":60,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":60,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,6,1,10],[2,2,2,3]]}
[null,"Figure 3: Net core Crown debt"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[null,null,"% of GDP"]
[null,"Year ending 30 June (from 1990)","Net core Crown debt","Core Crown net debt (pre-2009 definition)"]
[null,1973,null,5.7794925742574277]
[null,1974,null,4.365933126802692]
[null,1975,null,4.9103204939723613]
[null,1976,null,8.5677038067095364]
[null,1977,null,7.6538791869453195]
[null,1978,null,8.5485415203931829]
[null,1979,null,14.308102189781016]
[null,1980,null,15.703299912391708]
[null,1981,null,16.940674503918626]
[null,1982,null,20.336860961829959]
[null,1983,null,26.803685753604977]
[null,1984,null,29.60666255066706]
[null,1985,null,38.02457153678629]
[null,1986,null,39.602902888538104]
[null,1987,null,43.827756975480128]
[null,1988,null,39.233047401292062]
[null,1989,null,42.381510427727989]
[null,1990,null,47.518891402714928]
[null,1991,null,44.855341697494708]
[null,1992,54.822679527845665,49.938638136342355]
[null,1993,50.740400005041018]
[null,1994,45.309248991642548]
[null,1995,42.09115531518983]
[null,1996,34.678715357494262]
[null,1997,29.691769257137256]
[null,1998,29.043688404277628]
[null,1999,23.959094606085252]
[null,2000,22.583597292960302]
[null,2001,20.381457994092088]
[null,2002,19.537606488999025]
[null,2003,17.882663877063042]
[null,2004,16.167915833700402]
[null,2005,12.677675809774049]
[null,2006,9.8275557420210014]
[null,2007,7.6275389500447499]
[null,2008,5.4295816395663961]
[null,2009,9.0158365678834187]
[null,2010,13.548243258307407]
[null,2011,19.468554267721728]
[null,2012,23.546769643993994]
[null,2013,25.474147173822786]
[null,2014,25.273691845754193]
[null,2015,24.659478673949558]
[null,2016,23.90010466917203]
[null,2017,21.559395264037349]
[null,2018,19.43390040189421]
[null,2019,18.594944169433774]
[null,2020,26.242898286145955]
[null,2021,29.730768782692778]
[null,2022,35.224290993374588]
[null,2023,38.674188647288851]
[null,2024,41.774855186501689]
[null,2025,41.8]
[]
[]
[null,"*The measure of net core Crown debt adopted in 2009 is only restated back to 1992. The earlier measure for the period before 1992 included advances. March years are used prior to 1990."]

{"sheet":"Data 4 - Real allowances","index":7,"n_rows":33,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":33,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Figure 4: Real Budget operating allowances"]
[null,"Sources: Stats NZ, the Treasury"]
[null,null,"$billions (average per annum)","Base: June 2017 quarter (=1000)","$billions, 2017 June quarter prices (average per annum)"]
[null,"Budget","Budget operating allowance/package","Consumers Price Index","Real operating allowance (deflated by the Consumers Price Index)"]
[null,2005,2.7,775.96338875000004,{"$f":"C5/D6*1000","v":3.3633646669617652}]
[null,2006,2.5,802.76754599999902,{"$f":"C6/D7*1000","v":3.0331519044422235}]
[null,2007,2.5,824.2251225,2.9421646268651602]
[null,2008,2.2989999999999999,849.714518749999,2.6188840879652862]
[null,2009,1.45,877.85481249999998,1.6219890509676176]
[null,2010,1.1000000000000001,893.964111,1.1853219073179249]
[null,2011,-0.29599999999999999,928.0179445,-0.31203439383715181]
[null,2012,0.17899999999999999,948.61337675000004,0.18716759063677429]
[null,2013,0.9,956.36215325000001,0.92683746318105675]
[null,2014,1,971.04404575000001,1.0235858901001424]
[null,2015,1,976.95758575000002,1.0201789056427333]
[null,2016,1.6,980.22022849999996,1.609517948770774]
[null,2017,1.8,994.08645999999999,1.7835494477208915]
[null,2018,2.8479999999999999,1009.223491,2.7738008278548816]
[null,2019,3.8,1026.75,3.6346245815399327]
[null,2020,3.3,1045.5,3.0964109781843772]
[null,2021,3.8,1065.75,3.3546678437431026]
[null,2022,5.9,1132.75,4.8780487804878048]
[null,2023,4.8,1209.5,3.8012274797069883]
[null,2024,3.2,1262.75,2.4748646558391343]
[null,2025,1.3,1293,0.97895663868513516]
[null,2026,2.4,1327.9444141122201,1.7669757596041289,"Forecast"]
[null,2027,2.4,1358.25292845992,1.7302674596581347]
[null,2028,2.4,1387.0687948290899,1.6957021426409564]
[null,2029,2.4,1415.3429070167599,{"$f":"C29/D30*1000","v":1.6624285634632001}]
[null,2030,null,1443.6710561567099]
[]
[]
[null,"* Allowances are shown in June quarter 2017 prices, adjusted for inflation using the Stats NZ Consumers Price Index for the year ahead."]

{"sheet":"Data A.1 - Real GDP forecasts","index":9,"n_rows":51,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":51,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Figure 5: Real GDP forecasts since PREFU 2023"]
[null,"Sources: Stats NZ, the Treasury"]
[null,null,"$ billions (2009/10 prices)"]
[null,"Quarterly","PREFU 2023","BEFU 2024","BEFU 2025","HYEFU 2025"]
[null,"2019-06-01",64.504000000000005,64.323999999999998,64.263000000000005,64.260000000000005]
[null,"2019-09-01",64.953000000000003,64.867999999999995,64.756,64.763999999999996]
[null,"2019-12-01",65.424000000000007,65.376000000000005,65.403000000000006,65.403999999999996]
[null,"2020-03-01",64.841999999999999,64.567999999999998,64.686999999999998,64.686999999999998]
[null,"2020-06-01",58.139000000000003,58.01,57.966999999999999,57.962000000000003]
[null,"2020-09-01",66.108999999999995,66.174999999999997,66.117000000000004,66.135000000000005]
[null,"2020-12-01",66.061999999999998,66.278999999999996,66.375,66.378]
[null,"2021-03-01",67.563000000000002,67.480999999999995,67.757000000000005,67.748000000000005]
[null,"2021-06-01",68.838999999999999,68.293999999999997,68.349000000000004,68.331000000000003]
[null,"2021-09-01",65.963999999999999,65.62,65.451999999999998,65.477000000000004]
[null,"2021-12-01",68.245000000000005,67.989000000000004,68.106999999999999,68.102000000000004]
[null,"2022-03-01",68.289000000000001,67.897999999999996,68.103999999999999,68.075000000000003]
[null,"2022-06-01",69.331999999999994,68.587999999999994,68.847999999999999,68.826999999999998]
[null,"2022-09-01",70.325000000000003,69.816000000000003,70.203000000000003,70.248999999999995]
[null,"2022-12-01",69.840999999999994,69.504999999999995,70.207999999999998,70.218000000000004]
[null,"2023-03-01",69.796000000000006,69.266000000000005,70.156000000000006,70.084000000000003]
[null,"2023-06-01",70.189713334181803,69.608999999999995,70.688000000000002,70.668999999999997]
[null,"2023-09-01",70.487923629891,69.370999999999995,70.716999999999999,70.748999999999995]
[null,"2023-12-01",70.776628462353202,69.307000000000002,70.856999999999999,70.87]
[null,"2024-03-01",71.064912295034901,69.403667552545897,71.111000000000004,70.953999999999994]
[null,"2024-06-01",71.371797791654814,69.521237855090106,70.346000000000004,70.299000000000007]
[null,"2024-09-01",71.675374069878089,69.838516340745102,69.603999999999999,69.557000000000002]
[null,"2024-12-01",72.057208135109903,70.234920126103603,70.055999999999997,69.86]
[null,"2025-03-01",72.498438775039389,70.793939037434697,70.301965545125398,70.518000000000001]
[null,"2025-06-01",73.037555437647598,71.391261090059999,70.798079728469006,69.849999999999994]
[null,"2025-09-01",73.684353037352992,71.978109567573497,71.388350971551489,70.1379291916748,"Forecast"]
[null,"2025-12-01",74.384365696473381,72.546546364911208,71.9866357341498,70.762484144797511]
[null,"2026-03-01",75.076567836287381,73.108282679045303,72.537174620646695,71.435435841605994]
[null,"2026-06-01",75.745716402941596,73.655408701906993,73.064032739855989,72.139197377853193]
[null,"2026-09-01",76.331586678918299,74.18760172533338,73.582971499590997,72.760108958012211]
[null,"2026-12-01",76.863833436397087,74.705232575620997,74.106541879300309,73.299225837453804]
[null,"2027-03-01",77.383081399519796,75.215583935154001,74.639454365779002,73.797297760647197]
[null,"2027-06-01",77.897211053903504,75.722333819301795,75.179367267061096,74.278884040228604]
[null,"2027-09-01",null,76.2263611613118,75.719533836715499,74.740514604167714]
[null,"2027-12-01",null,76.72868960225378,76.253035336888402,75.201912463903199]
[null,"2028-03-01",null,77.229755502837293,76.773181191652398,75.662578851354297]
[null,"2028-06-01",null,77.727576721031909,77.277423489977693,76.137277706531194]
[null,"2028-09-01",null,null,77.768777669848006,76.622475400974494]
[null,"2028-12-01",null,null,78.250059119436699,77.1070136180698]
[null,"2029-03-01",null,null,78.724495558061605,77.589986470797299]
[null,"2029-06-01",null,null,79.197814113758696,78.071054516984603]
[null,"2029-09-01",null,null,null,78.554318976632899]
[null,"2029-12-01",null,null,null,79.04218494090459]
[null,"2030-03-01",null,null,null,79.537327907274303]
[null,"2030-06-01",null,null,null,80.042611848927393]
[]
[null,"* Real production GDP, seasonally adjusted"]

{"sheet":"Data A.2 - Tax-to-GDP ratio ","index":11,"n_rows":26,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":26,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[3,2,3,5]]}
[null,"Figure A.2: Core Crown tax-to-GDP ratio forecasts since PREFU 2023"]
[null,"Sources: Stats NZ, the Treasury"]
[]
[null,null,"% of GDP"]
[null,"Year ending 30 June","PREFU 2023","BEFU 2024","BEFU 2025","HYEFU 2025"]
[null,2010,25.8,25.778049424732682,25.714307357881559,25.714307357881559]
[null,2011,25.1,25.071597716575251,25.017828896932528,25.017828896932528]
[null,2012,25.6,25.630521124139214,25.597529705339756,25.597529705339756]
[null,2013,26.8,26.80664661819079,26.760171637398884,26.760171637398884]
[null,2014,26,26,26,26]
[null,2015,27.1,27.126671280276813,27.102178369232767,27.102288598492702]
[null,2016,27.2,27.225881193476081,27.206008210745033,27.206113282456904]
[null,2017,27.5,27.450231884689074,27.41958524844495,27.431815791668626]
[null,2018,27.1,27.142184058544707,27.119429241727151,27.14337790469488]
[null,2019,27.9,27.87961560411285,27.847023303447198,27.862905892019903]
[null,2020,26.8,26.813740854868893,26.792720798662597,26.799555030703825]
[null,2021,28.6,28.549349687599307,28.515761532704506,28.523320283598693]
[null,2022,29.9,29.805679313623649,29.656209189644425,29.664645033532818]
[null,2023,28.6,28.404677636684927,27.981380759911044,27.97908137855471]
[null,2024,29.2,28.810123707906396,28.663548744478419,28.695271529452089]
[null,2025,29.6,28.536465197641451,27.78261270260187,27.906835580058807]
[null,2026,30.1,28.91195641529794,27.39399659438962,27.326567084337569,"Forecast"]
[null,2027,30.1,29.293865277299304,27.841112816126202,27.596345734107999]
[null,2028,null,29.504101937411029,28.049482025144766,27.925496536647113]
[null,2029,null,null,28.275713511895397,28.203450079527997]
[null,2030,null,null,null,28.425757065836883]

{"sheet":"Table 1  - CCE by category","index":13,"n_rows":14,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":14,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Table 1 – Increase in core Crown expenses from 2018/19 to 2024/25 by functional classification"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,"Functional classification ","% of GDP","$billions"]
[null,"Core Crown expenses 2018/19",28,87]
[null,"New Zealand Superannuation",0.6,8.6]
[null,"Welfare benefits ",0.7,8.1]
[null,"Health",1.1000000000000001,12]
[null,"Finance costs",0.8,5.2]
[null,"Transport ",0.3,2.6]
[null,"Housing",0.3,1.4]
[null,"Education",0.2,6.6]
[null,"Other",0.5,10.199999999999999]
[null,"Core Crown expenses 2024/25",32.5,141.69999999999999]

{"sheet":"Table 2 - Key fiscal indicators","index":14,"n_rows":17,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":17,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Table 2: Key fiscal indicators from the HYEFU"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,"Year ending 30 June"]
[null,"$billions","2025\nActual","2026\nForecast","2027\nForecast","2028\nForecast","2029\nForecast","2030\nForecast"]
[null,"Core Crown revenue",134.411,136.91900000000001,144.79499999999999,153.22,161.82599999999999,170.57499999999999]
[null,"Core Crown expenses",141.67500000000001,149.047,153.465,157.64599999999999,162.636,167.94499999999999]
[null,"OBEGALx",-9.3059999999999992,-13.852,-10.362,-5.1210000000000004,-0.94499999999999995,2.2989999999999999]
[null,"Net core Crown debt",182.17099999999999,196.98699999999999,220.56800000000001,235.661,246.76,253.905]
[null,"Net worth",189.12799999999999,182.482,175.83500000000001,175.30699999999999,179.64099999999999,187.47399999999999]
[]
[null,"% of GDP"]
[null,"Core Crown revenue",30.8,30.099999999999998,30.2,30.5,30.8,31]
[null,"Core Crown expenses",32.5,32.800000000000004,32,31.4,30.9,30.5]
[null,"OBEGALx",-2.1,-3,-2.1999999999999997,-1,-0.2,0.4]
[null,"Net core Crown debt",41.8,43.3,46,46.9,46.9,46.1]
[null,"Net worth",43.4,40.200000000000003,36.700000000000003,34.9,34.1,34]

{"sheet":"Table 3 - OBEGALx changes","index":15,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":18,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Table 3: Changes in OBEGALx forecasts between the BEFU and the HYEFU 2025"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,"Year ending 30 June",2026,2027,2028,2029]
[null,"$billions","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast"]
[]
[null,"OBEGALx - 2025 BEFU",-12.1,-8.1,-3.1,0.2]
[]
[null,"Core Crown tax revenue ",-0.8,-0.8,-0.2,0.2]
[null,"Core Crown benefit and New Zealand Superannuation expenses ",-0.4,-1.1000000000000001,-1,-1.3]
[null,"Tax impairments and student loan write-downs",-0.2,-0.2,-0.4,-0.3]
[null,"Net Emissions Trading Scheme revenue",-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.3]
[null,"NZ Super Fund, state-owned enterprises and Crown entity results (excluding ACC)",-0.3,-0.4,-0.2,-0.1]
[null,"Net core Crown finance costs",0.4,0.4,0.3,0.1]
[null,"Other",-0.3,0,-0.3,0.6]
[null,"Total movement",-1.8,-2.2999999999999998,-2,-1.1000000000000001]
[]
[null,"OBEGALx - 2025 HYEFU",-13.852,-10.362,-5.1210000000000004,-0.94499999999999995]

{"sheet":"Table A.1 - PREFU to HYEFU","index":16,"n_rows":22,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":22,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Table A.1: Changes in OBEGALx forecasts between the PREFU 2023 and the HYEFU 2025"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,"Year ending 30 June",2026,2027]
[null,"$billions","Forecast","Forecast"]
[]
[null,"OBEGALx - 2023 PREFU",1.5580000000000001,5.3]
[]
[null,"Tax revenue (excluding Budget decisions) ",-11.600000000000012,-11.199999999999989]
[null,"Benefit and New Zealand Superannuation expenses (excluding Budget decisions) ",-0.40000000000000141,-0.70000000000000151]
[null,"Debt impairments",-0.6,-0.5]
[null,"Net core Crown finance costs",-0.1,-0.7]
[null,"Emissions Trading Scheme forecast changes (net impact)",-0.60000000000000009,-0.4]
[null,"Education - forecast and depreciation changes ",-0.5,-0.60000000000000009]
[null,"Budget packages and allowance changes",2.2999999999999998,2.9000000000000004]
[null,"Baseline savings ",-0.5,-0.5]
[null,"Asset impairments",-0.5,-0.6]
[null,"Stated-owned enterprise and Crown entity results",-0.5,-0.7]
[null,"Other",-2.5,-2.7]
[]
[null,"Total movement",-15.5,-15.7]
[null,"OBEGALx - 2025 HYEFU",-13.852,-10.362]