Forecast accuracy

An analysis of the accuracy of the Treasury's macroeconomic and tax forecasts.

Summary

The latest Treasury analysis of its forecasting performance was published in 2016.

The key findings were:

  • The accuracy of the Treasury's GDP growth and tax revenue forecasts has improved over the three years leading up to 2016.
  • The accuracy of the Treasury's CPI inflation forecasts has declined a little, through a period of unusually-low inflation.
  • When compared to other forecasters of the New Zealand economy, the Treasury's forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation are amongst the most accurate.
  • In each of the six years leading up to 2016, the Treasury achieved its target of having one-year-ahead Budget tax revenue forecast errors of less than ±3%.

The full report can be found on the Treasury website at Regular Reviews - Treasury's Forecasting Performance.

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