Forecast accuracy

An analysis of the accuracy of the Treasury's macroeconomic and tax forecasts.


The latest Treasury analysis of its forecasting performance was published in 2016.

The key findings were:

  • The accuracy of the Treasury's GDP growth and tax revenue forecasts has improved over the three years leading up to 2016.
  • The accuracy of the Treasury's CPI inflation forecasts has declined a little, through a period of unusually-low inflation.
  • When compared to other forecasters of the New Zealand economy, the Treasury's forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation are amongst the most accurate.
  • In each of the six years leading up to 2016, the Treasury achieved its target of having one-year-ahead Budget tax revenue forecast errors of less than ±3%.

The full report can be found on the Treasury website at Regular Reviews - Treasury's Forecasting Performance.

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