Fiscal Strategy Model Projections

The principal purpose of the FSM is to produce the post-forecast fiscal projections.

The Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2026 updated version of the FSM is published here and on the Treasury's website.

Also downloadable from the section below is a note Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2026 Projections. This provides further information about the post-forecast projections, including detailing some of the key assumptions and providing data tables for both economic and fiscal variable projections.

The next version of the Fiscal Strategy Model will be published alongside BEFU 2027.

Notes for this version of the Fiscal Strategy Model

Scenarios for different amounts in forecast years of some welfare transfer expenses, tax revenue categories, operating allowances and capital allowances, and different New Zealand Superannuation Fund tracks, can be run using the Fiscal Forecast Adjuster and NZS Fund Adjuster worksheets of the FSM. The output of these scenarios can be modelled in the Option worksheet.

Other Treasury Models

The Long-Term Fiscal Model

Treasury produces another model that projects fiscal and economic variables beyond the forecasts. It is called the Long-Term Fiscal Model (LTFM) .

The LTFM differs from the FSM in that:

• modelling for the LTFM extends at least as far as the year ending June 2065
• the LTFM’s projections are not intended to represent the Government's fiscal strategy
• in regard to the last point, the LTFM projects individual operating and capital expenditure classes with their own particular cost drivers, such as changes in the recipient population and expense growth factors based on historical averages, rather than restricting their growth to a share of projected operating or capital allowances and
• the LTFM has more modelling capability so that it can, for example, produce scenarios where the projected growth of individual expense categories, such as health or education, can be altered.

New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) Fund Contribution Rate Model

The projected required contributions track from the Treasury's New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) Fund Contribution Rate Model is an input into the LTFM and the FSM.