Fiscal Strategy Model Projections

The principal purpose of the FSM is to produce the post-forecast fiscal projections.

The next version of the Fiscal Strategy Model will be published alongside BEFU 2025.

The Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2024 updated version of the FSM is published here and on the Treasury's website.

Also downloadable from the section below is a note Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2024 Projections. This provides further information about the post-forecast projections, including detailing some of the key assumptions and providing data tables for both economic and fiscal variable projections.

The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2024 updated version of the FSM is published here, along with the updated Projection Assumptions HYEFU 2024.

Notes for this version of the Fiscal Strategy Model

Scenarios for different levels of operating expenses and revenue, and different NZS Fund tracks, can be tested using the Fiscal Forecast Adjuster and NZS Fund Adjuster worksheets of the FSM. The output of these scenarios can be modelled in the Scenario worksheet.

Other Treasury Models

The Long-Term Fiscal Model

Treasury produces another model that projects fiscal and economic variables beyond the forecasts. It is called the Long-Term Fiscal Model (LTFM) .

The LTFM differs from the FSM in that:

• modelling for the LTFM extends at least as far as the year ending June 2061
• the LTFM's projections are not intended to assess the Government's fiscal strategy
• in regard to the last point, the LTFM projects individual operating and capital expenditure classes with their own particular cost drivers, such as changes in the recipient population and expense growth factors based on historical averages, rather than restricting their growth to a share of projected operating or capital allowances, and
• the LTFM has more modelling capability so that it can, for example, produce scenarios where debt is constrained and some other fiscal variable, such as expenditure or tax revenue, becomes the balancing output.

New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) Fund Contribution Rate Model

The projected required contributions track from the Treasury's New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) Fund Contribution Rate Model is an input into the LTFM and the FSM.